New On-line Tool Tailors Climate Forecasts to Fit Resource Managers' Needs

A soon-to-be-released online tool, developed through NASA funding, provides "Consumer Reports" type evaluations of seasonal forecasts for water, land and agricultural managers. By helping users determine what forecasts are right for their needs, this tool could help users make multi-million dollar decisions.

Seasonal forecasts predict whether temperatures and precipitation in an area will be above average or below average for an upcoming season. This tool tells users how accurate these predictions have been in the past.

If understood and used properly, long-range forecasts can greatly aid in the management of water, fires, cattle, agriculture, energy and more.

"There is so much misinterpretation concerning climate forecasts in general," said Holly Hartmann, a University of Arizona hydrologist, and lead author of a paper that is the cover story in the May issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. "Part of our tool tries to make sure that forecasts are easy to interpret and that people can reliably interpret them."

When millions of dollars and lives are at stake, resource managers have been tentative about taking advantage of sophisticated climate forecasts available on the Web. By explaining and evaluating these forecasts, the new tool helps decision makers utilize them regardless of their training.

For the complete article on the seasonal forecasts of temperatures and precipitation, go to: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020523tool.html