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Nov
Is Native American Heritage Month
Computer
Model Suggests Future Crop Loss Due to Potential Increase in Extreme
Rain Events Over Next Century
An increased
frequency of extreme precipitation events has been observed over
the last 100 years in the United States. Global climate models project
that similar trends may continue and even strengthen over the coming
decades, due to climate change. Now, a study using computer climate
and crop model simulations predicts that U.S. agricultural production
losses due to excess rainfall may double in the next 30 years, resulting
in an estimated $3 billion per year in damages.
Cynthia Rosenzweig
and Francesco Tubiello, researchers at the NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, and the other
authors of this study, found that current assessments of the impacts
of climate change on agriculture have not accounted for the negative
impacts on crops from increased precipitation and floods. In an
effort to close this information gap, the researchers modified an
existing crop computer model to simulate the extent to which excess
soil moisture from heavy rain might damage crop plants.
For the complete
article on computer models predicting extreme precipitation events,
go to: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/
20021022cropdamage.html
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