New NASA Computer Models May Lead to Quake Forecast System

Advanced computer simulation tools now being developed by NASA and university researchers may soon give scientists new insights into the complex and mysterious physics of earthquakes and enable vastly improved earthquake forecasting.

Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., together with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center ; Ames Research Center, Mountain View, Calif.; and several universities, are developing an advanced earthquake modeling system called QuakeSim. When completed in late 2004, QuakeSim's simulation tools will help scientists learn more about what makes earthquakes happen.

The tools are based upon the latest technologies. For example, one uses finite element analysis, which solves complex computer modeling problems by breaking them into small pieces. For QuakeSim, the finite elements are tens to hundreds of thousands of measurements of how Earth's crust deforms in response to movement of the giant tectonic plates Earth's landmasses ride upon. The measurements are gathered through both ground and space-based techniques. The latter include global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar, which measure the "quiet" (non-earthquake) motions associated with plate tectonics and the quake cycle.

For the complete article on computer simulation assisting with the forecast of earthquakes: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/news-release/releases/2003/2003-074.htm