A lot of old weather sayings are not very reliable and some are just plain silly, but others are worth paying attention to. I wouldn't bet any money on how wooly caterpillars are in the fall as a guide to how cold the winter will be (of course caterpillars don't have wool or fur, but rather specialized hairs). Similarly, the actions of squirrels should not be used to predict the weather since squirrels gather more nuts in the fall if trees produce more of them. Most animals and plants respond to what the weather conditions are now, and not what the weather is likely to be next season. Birds may fly south earlier one year than the next if the weather turns colder and/or their food sources are diminished. Sometimes robins and other migratory birds fly north in the spring and are greeted by a snowstorm or a cold snap.

As for Groundhog's Day, it's not even known whether groundhogs recognize their shadow. It is true that groundhogs or woodchucks awaken earlier than most hibernating animals from their winter torpor, and they have been known to burrow out of their den while the snow was still quite deep. The legend of the groundhog is a variation on the mid winter tradition of Candlemas, celebrated in places such as England and Germany. Candlemas also takes place on February 2. According to the old English song,

"If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight; If Candlemas brings cloud and rain, Go, Winter, and come not again."
It's hard to come up with an eloquent verse that includes groundhogs. Anyway, whether or not a critter casts a shadow on a particular day has nothing to do with next week's or next month's weather.

People who depend on the weather for their livelihood and their well-being are probably more attuned to certain conditions they observe than are the rest of us. The 'old salts' who spend most of their time sailing the seas are good at watching the skies. They have recognized that, in general, when the sky is red at sunset the weather will be fair the next day, and when the sky is red in the morning it may be stormy by the afternoon. In the mid lattitudes most weather systems move from west to east. So it makes sense to look toward the west to see what's coming. At sunset when the air is clear, the sky has a reddish color, and it's more likely than not that the next day will be sunny rather than cloudy. When the sky is red at sunrise, however, it may be due to a hurricane that is approaching from the east or south. Still, modern sailors prefer to rely on satellite images and hourly weather reports rather than rhymes.

A circle around the moon is also called a lunar halo. Halos are produced by ice crystals in high altitude clouds, such as cirrus clouds, which refract light in all directions. Cirrus clouds often are observed in advance of low pressure systems that may bring rain or snow. Therefore a circle around the sun or moon may give some indication of the next day's weather.

Almanacs predict the weather and climate by using historical climate data, the phases of the moon, etc. For the most part, what the almanac says is not all that reliable. What happened in years past has little bearing on what will happen this year, but it's kind of fun to follow.

Poor fishing off the coast of Peru is one sign that an El Nino is forming. Normally, the currents off of Peru come move from the east to the west and are rather cold as water from deeper depths replaces the water above. However, in some years the winds change direction and blow from the west ushering in warmer waters from the mid Pacific. When this occurs there is a reduction in nutrients in the warmer waters, and as a result fish are not as plentiful and the economy of Peru suffers. These changes in water temperature and wind conditions can set up a chain of events that affects large regions of the globe. Unusual droughts, warm winters and numerous hurricanes have all been attributed to El Nino episodes.

Which of the following has some validity in forecasting the weather or climate: The groundhog sees its shadow, there is a circle around the moon, the caterpillars are woolly this year or their bands are wider than last year, the squirrels are gathering more nuts, the expression "red skies at night sailors' delight, red skies at morn sailors be warned", the almanac says..., the birds are flying south earlier this year, the fishing is poor off the coast of Peru?

2/9/96