| Lynn Chandler Goddard Space Flight Center (301) 614-5562 1 (888) 474-0912 (pager) John Leslie/NOAA |
Dec. 6, 1998 |
RELEASE NO. 98-206
THE FIRST EL NIŅO OBSERVED AND FORECASTED FROM START TO FINISH: WHAT WAS LEARNED?
For the first time in history, scientists around the world were able to observe a major climate event from the earliest stages of development through decline. These observations have brought 1) unprecedented insight into El Niņo; 2) research data that will take years to analyze and 3) the opportunity to issue valuable predictions.
The 1997-1998 El Niņo "event of the century" was the best monitored and the first ever predicted El Niņo on record, according to NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists who are presenting joint papers at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco tomorrow.
Dr. Antonio Busalacchi, a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center scientist, reported that "the 1997-1998 El Niņo will be the first time a major El Niņo event and subsequent La Niņa will have been observed globally from start to finish."
Following the last strong El Niņo in 1982-1983, the international science community deployed an extensive surface observing system in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Niņo.
In addition, within the past 10 years, a series of oceans and atmospheric remote sensing satellites have been launched that supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These global observations have provided unprecedented information on sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface winds, ocean color and precipitation.
"The observations of the climate system, combined with sophisticated ocean-atmosphere prediction models, and the science communities increased understanding of the atmospheric response, led to an incredibly bold forecast of El Niņo nearly six months prior to the onset of the major impacts," said Dr. Ants Leetmaa, NOAA scientist. "Working with the emergency management community and other users we were able to start applying the forecasts for practical use and widespread education about climate variability. With this event, we were light years ahead of the last major El Nino."
Leetmaa added, "NOAA learned that the impacts of El Niņo are typically communicated through changes in the number and intensity of storms in areas that make up the midlatitudes, such as the United States." As a result, he said, "the El Niņo phenomenon sets the stage for more extreme weather events."
Beyond the impacts on U.S. and global weather patterns, the observation system also provided unprecedented insight on the impact of El Niņo on marine life. The observations of the marine environment for the first time have shown how the physical climate system during El Niņo obliterated the lowest levels of the marine ecosystem and subsequent impacts at higher levels in the food chain, said Busalacchi.
Among the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for the global observations in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the need for more regionally specific forecast tools, added Leetmaa and Busalacchi.
The experience of the 1997-1998 El Niņo has illustrated the global scale of the El Nino phenomenon and its impacts. "Today's El Niņo monitoring system, coupled with ocean-atmosphere models, and scientific understanding are capable of giving three to nine month advance warning of significant shifts in global precipitation and temperature patterns" said Busalacchi. "It has also demonstrated the need to refine such forecasts to regional scales and revealed where additional observations are needed."
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center monitors, analyzes and predicts climate events for the entire nation--from weeks to seasons, NOAA operates the network of data bouys and satellitles that provide vital information about the ocean and intitiates research projects to improve future climate forecasts.
NASA’s El Nino research is part of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise, a long-term research program designed to study the Earth’s land, oceans, air ice and life as a total system.
For information about El Nino, please visit: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/index.html
http://nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/enso/.
For images visit: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/~gshirah/nino/