RELEASE NO: 00-75

RESEARCHERS TAKE NEW YORK CITY’S TEMPERATURE

Researchers today announced key results of a two-year research effort to assess the vulnerability of New York City to climate change. Seven critical sectors addressed in this study are coasts, wetlands, infrastructure, water supply, public health, energy and institutional decision-making.

Drs. Cynthia Rosenzweig, Vivien Gornitz, Ellen Hartig, Richard Goldberg, and Reggie Blake of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, along with researchers from other institutions, present the results of the Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) at a conference held at Columbia University in New York City.

"Climate impacts in cities are multi-dimensional," said Rosenzweig, a Co-Leader of the MEC study. "Our goal is to provide critical information to assist the region's decision-makers to anticipate, prepare for and prevent the potentially serious impacts of climate events now and in the future."

Study results show that over the last 100 years the temperature has risen 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Scenarios from global climate modeling studies project additional warming for the New York Metropolitan Region throughout the 21st century, ranging from 4 to10 degrees Fahrenheit.

The effects of this warming trend will not be uniform across all sectors. The most direct health effect likely to be associated with a warming and more variable climate is an increase in summer-season heat stress, particularly among the poor and elderly.

A warmer climate is also likely to raise the demand for electricity and cause increased stress to the electric utility systems. Recommendations to decision-makers include educating the population on energy efficiency.

Other study results involve the coastlines and the delicate wetland areas due to sea-level rise. The already rising sea level in the MEC region is projected to rise 4.3 to11.7 inches over the next 20 years. This sea-level rise would lead to more storm damage and increased beach erosion. Higher sea levels and more damaging storm surges will impact fish and bird habitats in the wetland areas.

This study represents a unique collaborative effort that brings together key stakeholders, including state, regional, and local agencies, as well as environmental organizations, to address climate change and its impacts to ensure results were relevant and useful in all decision-making sectors. Stakeholders are institutions whose activities are and will be impacted by present and future climate variability and change and have a stake in being involved in research of potential impacts.

"A goal of the process has been to ensure that the results are relevant to the people that actually make the decisions that affect the city," said William Solecki, Co-Leader of the MEC Assessment and a geographer at Montclair State University, NJ.

The study of the Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) area is one of 16 regional components that contribute to the U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, organized by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The goal of each regional assessment is to understand the impacts of climate change and variability on physical systems and human activities of a specific area of the United States. The Metro East Coast Assessment is the Regional Assessment that specifically addresses issues of climate change and cities. The National Science Foundation and Columbia University's Earth Institute provided major funding for the study.

The study area for the Metro East Coast Assessment covers the 31 counties of the New York City metropolitan region. The area consists of 13,000 square miles, with jurisdictions involving 1,600 cities, towns and villages in the three states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. The total regional population is 19.6 million, of which 7.3 live in New York City.

Other organizations participating in this study include: Columbia University’s Earth Institute, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and School of Public Health, Montclair State University, New York University and SUNY Stony Brook.

For more information about the MEC project:

http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu 

The GISS web site regarding their contribution to the National Assessment is:

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/projects/metroeast/ 

The web site for public comment on the draft National Assessment report is:

http://www.gcrio.org/NationalAssessment/ 

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The Assessment found that coastal communities, the elderly, and the poor are particularly at risk to climate change.

Coasts: Sea-level is already rising ~1 inch per decade in the Metro East Coast Region, due in part to ongoing geologic subsidence since the end of the last glacial period over 6,000 years ago and in part due to the warming trend of the 20^th century. Under projected climate change, sea level in the MEC region may rise by 4 to 12 inches over the next 20 years, 7 to 24 inches by the 2050s, and 10 to 43 inches by the 2080s. Sea-level rise would lead to more elevated storm surges and a marked reduction in the flood return period. The 100-yr flood would have a probability of occurrence, on average, once in every 60 years to as often as every 4 years by the 2080s.

Infrastructure: Many transportation infrastructure systems will be at risk to flooding in the 21^st century because they lie between 5 and 15 ft above sea level. At two-thirds of the facilities with elevations at or below 10 ft. above sea level, flooding may occur at least once every decade, and at some facilities every few years by the end of this century. Losses from a single devastating storm can be 1-10% of gross regional product.

Wetlands:: Coastal wetland sites in Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge have been reduced about 12% in area over the last 40 years, with sea-level rise a possible causative factor. On-site field observations show internal pooling and fragmentation of vegetation – indications of inundation and erosion. With a warming climate that causes higher sea levels and more damaging storm surges, we can expect these losses to increase over the next century, impacting fish and bird habitats.

Water Supply: Climate change projections indicate that the natural variability of the hydrological systems in the region will increase, with increases in floods and droughts. Fish populations and other ecosystem services are likely to be affected. Increased uncertainty will require a range of resiliency options from water management.

Health: The most direct health effect likely to be associated with a warming and more variable climate is an increase in summer-season heat stress morbidity and mortality, particularly among the poor elderly. Climate change in the MEC region could contribute to at least three classes of adverse health outcomes: incidence of certain vector-borne diseases may rise; water-borne disease organisms may become more prevalent; and increased formation of photochemical air pollutants may be fostered.

Energy Demand.: A warmer climate is likely to raise the demand for electricity because the increase in summer cooling outweighs the decrease in winter needs. Because peak summer electricity loads already far exceed winter peaks, the electric system will be increasingly stressed during summer heat waves.

Institutional Decision-making: Involvement of decision-making institutions is critical in order to cope with, adapt to, or reduce the consequences of global climate change. Institutions react to public outcry, costs resulting from a disaster, and the extent to which any actions lies within their mandate and capacity. Effective institutional response to climate change will require increased interagency cooperation and coordination. Suddenness, magnitude and frequency of climate events is a key attribute for triggering responsiveness. It is important to link adaptive response to opportunities for change, such as new investments, relocation of structures, and major rehabilitation.