Goddard Space Flight Center
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The Middle Atlantic area has been in a prolonged drought for the last 10 months. What are some of the causes of the drought?

There's no doubt about it, it has been extremely dry in the Middle Atlantic area and parts of New England for the past 10 months. A drought of this magnitude and duration, while not unheard of, is unusual in the eastern states, where precipitation is generally less erratic than in other regions of the country.

In some districts, the drought has been especially severe, and several major rivers and streams have recorded unprecedented low discharge values. Near-surface soil moisture has been almost depleted, wells have gone dry and water rationing has been made mandatory in a number of counties. For example, in New Jersey, this past winter, a drought emergency was declared by the Delaware River Basin Commission, serving 17 million people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. In New England and in much of the northeast, snowmelt can usually be counted on for filling reservoirs, but in most locales, this was a below-normal snow season. Thus, in upstate New York, reservoirs were at only about 40% of capacity.

Things weren't much better further south. It was the driest autumn since 1941 in Washington D.C, and many eastern cities recorded their lowest November rainfall totals ever. It remained very dry during the winter months as well. In Washington, it was the 2rd driest and 4th warmest winter on record. As a result, the Potomac River was running at only about 29% of the median flow and reservoirs that serve Baltimore had dropped to about 60% of capacity - the lowest ever recorded during the winter months. In southern Maryland, precipitation deficits between September and March totaled more than a foot (30 cm).

Last week (April 15-20), the weather was actually hot (mid 90s F). Temperatures were at some stations 30 degrees F above normal, and a number of daily records were set along the Atlantic Seaboard. About the only thing falling from the sky has been pollen - mostly tree pollen. The warm, dry weather has contributed to this being one of the worst seasons for pollen in a years. In Washington D.C., pollen grains (per cubic meter) topped 2,500 - about 5 times the count normal for mid April and about 20 times more than needed to make allergy sufferers feel miserable. Most everything, especially automobiles, have a green tinge as a result of the pollen precipitation.

Of course, the drought almost ensures that crop yields will be way down and that the threat of forests fires will be way up. As ground water is being depleted, the water table continues to subside and those people depending on well water, mainly residents outside the major metropolitan areas, are finding water more scarce. In fact, wells have dried up and down the east coast. Moreover, the lack of fresh water emptying into bays such as the Chesapeake, effect the health of shellfish and submerged grasses, which are especially sensitive to changes in water volume and quality. While in some cases the lower water amounts will certainly be detrimental, in others, a decrease in precipitation maybe welcomed. For example, an increase in saltiness extends the range of blue crabs and certain fish. Also, in a nutshell, less rain means fewer mosquitoes, and fewer mosquito-transmitted diseases, such as West Nile.

Several things have conspired to make the east more like the west in terms of rainfall. For one thing, there were no hurricanes or tropical storms that hit the east coast last summer and fall. While these storms may or may not come ashore along the east coast of the US in a given year, their rain shields can usually be counted on to cover portions of the Atlantic Seaboard. In 2001, this didn't happen. If you look at monthly rainfall values for most east coast cities from Boston to Jacksonville, you'll notice that August is one of the wettest, if not the wettest month, of the year. Of course, August is also a hot month, and often it's hot and dry for several days or even several weeks in succession. The high temperatures and dry conditions in late summer generally are consistent with air masses in which the air aloft is descending - the Bermuda High is often well established in August. This characteristic isn't conducive to precipitation. However, in most year's, August's average rainfall totals are boosted by an occasional tropical deluge.

Not only was there a dearth of "canes," but for months now, the upper atmosphere hasn't behaved the way it normally does. Jet streams have been positioned either too far north or too far south to provide us with the moisture we've come to expect - mostly the former. If these upper air currents are located north of the Great Lakes, for instance, rainmakers will move along a track that leaves us low and dry. With jet streams failing to dip south during the fall and winter months to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, "east coast storms" were few and far between.

However, not all of the water restrictions and rationing can be blamed on Mother Nature's inability to provide us with the water we thirst for. Simply put, there are more straws in the glass now than ever before. In one aquifer in southern Maryland, the water level has dropped 40 feet (13 m) in the past 20 years even though the input (precipitation) has been very close to the normal for that period. Reservoirs can hold excess rain water in reserve for future needs, such as now, but with more and more people tapping into the limited ground water supplies, what was once ubiquitous is becoming increasingly precious.