The Middle Atlantic area has been in a prolonged drought for the last
10 months. What are some of the causes of the drought?
There's no doubt about it, it has been extremely dry in the Middle Atlantic
area and parts of New England for the past 10 months. A drought of this
magnitude and duration, while not unheard of, is unusual in the eastern
states, where precipitation is generally less erratic than in other regions
of the country.
In
some districts, the drought has been especially severe, and several major
rivers and streams have recorded unprecedented low discharge values. Near-surface
soil moisture has been almost depleted, wells have gone dry and water
rationing has been made mandatory in a number of counties. For example,
in New Jersey, this past winter, a drought emergency was declared by the
Delaware River Basin Commission, serving 17 million people in New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. In New England and in much of
the northeast, snowmelt can usually be counted on for filling reservoirs,
but in most locales, this was a below-normal snow season. Thus, in upstate
New York, reservoirs were at only about 40% of capacity.
Things
weren't much better further south. It was the driest autumn since 1941
in Washington D.C, and many eastern cities recorded their lowest November
rainfall totals ever. It remained very dry during the winter months as
well. In Washington, it was the 2rd driest and 4th warmest winter on record.
As a result, the Potomac River was running at only about 29% of the median
flow and reservoirs that serve Baltimore had dropped to about 60% of capacity
- the lowest ever recorded during the winter months. In southern Maryland,
precipitation deficits between September and March totaled more than a
foot (30 cm).
Last
week (April 15-20), the weather was actually hot (mid 90s F). Temperatures
were at some stations 30 degrees F above normal, and a number of daily
records were set along the Atlantic Seaboard. About the only thing falling
from the sky has been pollen - mostly tree pollen. The warm, dry weather
has contributed to this being one of the worst seasons for pollen in a
years. In Washington D.C., pollen grains (per cubic meter) topped 2,500
- about 5 times the count normal for mid April and about 20 times more
than needed to make allergy sufferers feel miserable. Most everything,
especially automobiles, have a green tinge as a result of the pollen precipitation.
Of
course, the drought almost ensures that crop yields will be way down and
that the threat of forests fires will be way up. As ground water is being
depleted, the water table continues to subside and those people depending
on well water, mainly residents outside the major metropolitan areas,
are finding water more scarce. In fact, wells have dried up and down the
east coast. Moreover, the lack of fresh water emptying into bays such
as the Chesapeake, effect the health of shellfish and submerged grasses,
which are especially sensitive to changes in water volume and quality.
While in some cases the lower water amounts will certainly be detrimental,
in others, a decrease in precipitation maybe welcomed. For example, an
increase in saltiness extends the range of blue crabs and certain fish.
Also, in a nutshell, less rain means fewer mosquitoes, and fewer mosquito-transmitted
diseases, such as West Nile.
Several
things have conspired to make the east more like the west in terms of
rainfall. For one thing, there were no hurricanes or tropical storms that
hit the east coast last summer and fall. While these storms may or may
not come ashore along the east coast of the US in a given year, their
rain shields can usually be counted on to cover portions of the Atlantic
Seaboard. In 2001, this didn't happen. If you look at monthly rainfall
values for most east coast cities from Boston to Jacksonville, you'll
notice that August is one of the wettest, if not the wettest month, of
the year. Of course, August is also a hot month, and often it's hot and
dry for several days or even several weeks in succession. The high temperatures
and dry conditions in late summer generally are consistent with air masses
in which the air aloft is descending - the Bermuda High is often well
established in August. This characteristic isn't conducive to precipitation.
However, in most year's, August's average rainfall totals are boosted
by an occasional tropical deluge.
Not
only was there a dearth of "canes," but for months now, the
upper atmosphere hasn't behaved the way it normally does. Jet streams
have been positioned either too far north or too far south to provide
us with the moisture we've come to expect - mostly the former. If these
upper air currents are located north of the Great Lakes, for instance,
rainmakers will move along a track that leaves us low and dry. With jet
streams failing to dip south during the fall and winter months to tap
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, "east coast storms" were few
and far between.
However,
not all of the water restrictions and rationing can be blamed on Mother
Nature's inability to provide us with the water we thirst for. Simply
put, there are more straws in the glass now than ever before. In one aquifer
in southern Maryland, the water level has dropped 40 feet (13 m) in the
past 20 years even though the input (precipitation) has been very close
to the normal for that period. Reservoirs can hold excess rain water in
reserve for future needs, such as now, but with more and more people tapping
into the limited ground water supplies, what was once ubiquitous is becoming
increasingly precious.
|